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With an unexpected announcement, a key leading contenders in the Irish election for president has quit the contest, upending the election dynamics.

Withdrawal Announcement Reconfigures Political Contest

The party's presidential hopeful pulled out on the evening of Sunday following disclosures about an unpaid debt to a previous occupant, transforming the race into an unpredictable direct competition between a center-right ex-minister and an independent leftwing parliamentarian.

Gavin, 54, a political novice who joined the election after work in athletics, flying and armed forces, withdrew after it came to light he had failed to return a rent overpayment of €3,300 when he was a property owner about 16 years ago, during a period of economic hardship.

"I made a mistake that was inconsistent with my values and the standards I set myself. Corrective actions are underway," he declared. "After careful consideration, regarding the possible effects of the current political contest on the health of my relatives and acquaintances.

"After evaluating everything, I've chosen to exit from the campaign for president with immediate action and return to the arms of my family."

Contest Reduced to Two Main Contenders

The most dramatic event in a presidential campaign in recent history limited the options to Heather Humphreys, a past government official who is representing the ruling centre-right party Fine Gael, and Catherine Connolly, an frank advocate for Palestine who is supported by a political party and small leftwing opposition parties.

Crisis for Leadership

Gavin's exit also created turmoil for the taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, the party chief, who had staked his authority by nominating an unproven contender over the reservations of fellow members.

The leader stated Gavin did not want to "bring controversy" to the presidential role and was right to withdraw. "He acknowledged that he committed a mistake in relation to an situation that has come up lately."

Campaign Struggles

Despite a reputation for capability and achievements in business and sport – under his leadership Dublin's Gaelic football team to five straight titles – his campaign had stumbled through missteps that caused him to fall behind in an survey even ahead of the debt news.

Fianna Fáil figures who had opposed selecting the candidate said the episode was a "major error in judgment" that would have "consequences" – a implied threat to the leader.

Voting System

His name may stay on the voting paper in the poll taking place in late October, which will conclude the lengthy term of the current president, but voters now face a binary choice between a mainstream moderate hopeful and an independent leftwinger. Opinion research conducted ahead of his departure gave 32 percent backing for Connolly and Humphreys nearly a quarter, with the former candidate at 15 percent.

As per election guidelines, the electorate chooses candidates in order of preference. In case nobody reaches a majority in round one, the hopeful with the fewest primary selections is removed and their ballots are redistributed to the following option.

Possible Ballot Shifts

Analysts predicted that if Gavin was eliminated, a majority of his ballots would shift to the other candidate, and conversely, boosting the chance that a mainstream contender would secure the presidency for the allied parties.

Role of the Presidency

This office is a mostly representative role but the current and former presidents transformed it into a platform on global issues.

Final Contenders

Connolly, 68, from her home city, would introduce a robust progressive perspective to that legacy. Connolly has attacked neoliberal economics and said the organization constitutes "a fundamental element" of the people of Palestine. Connolly has alleged NATO of promoting military solutions and likened the country's raised military budget to the thirties, when Adolf Hitler rearmed the country.

Humphreys, 62, has been subjected to review over her performance in government in cabinets that oversaw a housing crisis. A Presbyterian from the county Monaghan near the border, she has also been questioned about her inability to speak Irish but said her faith tradition could help win over Northern Ireland's unionists in a reunified nation.